“营改增”对现金-现金流敏感性的影响--基于分层线性模型（HLM）的检验

摘要

“Replacement of business tax by VAT”is an important component of Chinese fiscal and taxation reform in recent years and is significant to micro enterprises. Because the behavior characteristics of enterprises are related to their market cir⁃cumstances,the paper applies HLM to embed enterprises into the market circumstances in which they locate,and analyzes the policy role of“replacement of business tax by VAT”in cash-cash flow sensitivity of enterprises in different regions,in order to find the guiding effect of“replacement of business tax by VAT”on corporate cash holding strategy in the context of China’s differential market. The results show that“replacement of business tax by VAT”can reduce cash-cash flow sensitivities signif⁃icantly and the policy role differs in different market circumstances. The reducing effect is more obvious in regions with lower degree of marketization. This study has a certain guiding significance for the macro departments to make further decisions.%“：营改增”是我国近年来财税体制改革的重要组成部分，其对微观企业的政策效应具有重要意义。由于企业的行为特征与其所处地区的市场环境密切相关，文章运用分层线性模型，将企业嵌入其所处地区的市场环境中，分析“营改增”对不同地区企业现金-现金流敏感性的政策效应，以此发现“营改增”对我国差异性市场化环境下企业现金持有政策的引导作用。研究表明，“营改增”可以显著降低企业现金-现金流敏感性，且处于不同市场化程度地区的企业受到“营改增”政策的影响程度不同，“营改增”对处于市场化程度较低地区的企业现金-现金流敏感性降低作用更显著。此研究对于宏观部门进一步决策具有一定的指导意义。