考虑投资者行为的风险投资项目选择方法

摘要

Venture capital has the characteristics of high-risk and high-yield. The value of the venture capital project is uncer⁃tain. Therefore,the investor usually behaves regret aversion which shows that the investor usually tends to choose the venture capital project that may bring minimum regret,which is the investor's behavioral characteristics called regret aversion. Howev⁃er,how to consider investor's behavioral characteristic during the venture capital project selection has been given little atten⁃tion. In this paper,a method for selecting the venture capital project considering the investor’s behavior is proposed to solve the venture capital project selection issue. In the method,the values of venture capital projects in different market states are evaluated by calculating the intrinsic values and the flexibility values of venture capital projects in different market states. On this basis,the investor’s psychological perception of anticipated regret is described by constructing the regret function and the overall utility value of each venture capital project is calculated so as to determine the ranking of venture capital projects. Fi⁃nally,an example is used to illustrate the proposed method.%风险投资具有高风险、高收益的特性，项目的价值是不确定的，因此，投资者在选择风险投资项目时通常会选择令其可能产生的后悔情绪最小的项目，这就是投资者后悔规避的行为特征，而如何在风险投资方案选择中考虑投资者这方面的行为特征，已有研究很少关注。文章针对风险投资项目选择问题，提出了一种考虑投资者行为的风险投资项目选择方法。该方法是通过计算各风险投资项目在不同市场状态下的固有内在价值和灵活性价值对不同市场状态下的项目价值进行估计，在此基础上，构建用于刻画投资者预期后悔情绪的后悔函数，进一步地，计算项目的综合效用值并给出项目的排序结果。最后，通过一个例子对提出的方法进行说明。