考虑决策者风险偏好的新产品开发方案选择方法

摘要

In selecting new product development programs,not only the risk attitude of decision makers has significant effect on decision outcomes,but also the success of new product development more often than not depends on its performance compared to that of competitive products.Taking into account the risk attitude of decision makers and the evaluation information of competitive products,this paper proposes a method for selecting new product development programs based on the prospect theory.In this method,firstly,the prospect reference points of every attribute are given,and the risk attitude of decision makers is introduced to determine the prospect value function of every attribute in the new product development programs that possess interval information.Then,the prospect value of every program can be acquired through prospect value function and decision weight function so as to select the optimal program.Finally,an example is used to verify the validity and feasibility of this method.%在新产品开发方案选择时,不仅决策者的风险偏好对决策结果具有重要影响,而且新产品开发的成功与否往往取决于与竞争产品相比的绩效.同时考虑决策者的风险偏好和竞争产品方案的评价信息,提出了一种基于前景理论的新产品开发方案的选择方法.首先,给出每个属性的前景参考点,并引入决策者的风险偏好系数,定义了具有区间信息的新产品开发方案在每个属性下的前景价值函数;然后,通过前景价值函数和决策权重函数得到各方案的前景值,并进行方案优选.最后通过实例,说明了该方法的有效性和可行性.