基于决策者方案偏好的新产品开发方案选择方法

摘要

To sufficiently illustrate the influence of decision maker's preferences on selecting new product development programs,an approach for selecting new product development programs was introduced based on decision maker's program preferences.To reflect the fuzzy and uncertain characteristics of information in the process of selecting new product programs,the values of evaluation index were provided as a type of interval numbers to reduce the loss of decision information.A preference decision matrix of new product evaluation team was standardized by using a vector normalized approach.A decision maker gave his subjective preferences to the programs and a correction coefficient was introduced to modify the preferences.An optimal weight vector of index was derived from a model which could minimize the total deviation between the preferences of evaluation team and the ones of decision maker by a deviation degree concept of interval number.The weight vector of preference and the standardized decision matrix were combined to compute the comprehensive values of alternative programs.A possibility degree matrix and its priority vectors were calculated to order the programs.The application example and a comparative case analysis had showed the efficiency and feasibility of the proposed approach.%为充分体现新产品开发方案选择决策过程中决策者的主观偏好对决策结果的影响,提出基于决策者方案偏好的新产品开发方案选择方法.鉴于方案选择过程中信息的模糊性和不确定性,评价指标属性值以区间数形式给出,以减少决策信息的丢失.利用向量规范化方法规范化评估团体决策矩阵;通过企业内决策者给定其对备选方案的主观偏好值,并引入修正系数进行修正;通过区间数相离度获取使评估团队与决策者偏好总偏差最小的属性最优权重向量;集结属性权重向量和规范决策矩阵,得出各备选方案的综合属性值;通过两两比较区间数形式的综合属性值,建立可能度矩阵并计算其排序向量进行方案的排序择优.应用实例及案例对比分析表明,该方法对新产品开发方案选择是有效且可行的.