人口转变与城镇化发展背景下安徽省就业问题研究

摘要

In the context of Anhui’s urbanization has been entered into the fast development time and demographic dividend will end, the paper, based on Anhui provincial statistics yearbooks, applies DEA model and factors population forecast method to calculate rural labor absorption efficiency and demographic dividend turning point. The empirical results show that the ab⁃sorption efficiency of urban areas in Anhui province has bad performance, and the demographic dividend turning point will come at the end of thirteenth five-year plan, which indicates that the employment pressure is high. Therefore, it is suggested that if Anhui province would transfer from huge population province to strong human resources province smoothly, it should en⁃hance human resources allocation efficiency with the opportunity of new-type urbanization development, adjust retirement pol⁃icy and increase labor participation rate, and improve population quality.%在安徽省城镇化已进入快速发展时期以及人口红利即将结束的背景下，文章利用安徽省历年统计数据，基于DEA模型和分元素人口预测法的测算发现，在当前安徽省内各地市对农村劳动力吸纳效率不高的情况下，安徽省的人口机会窗口也会在“十三五”末期关闭，迎来人口红利拐点，就业形势严峻。因此，需从利用新型城镇化发展机遇提高人力资源配置效率、扩大劳动参与率并适当调整退休政策以及提高人口素质等方面着手，实现安徽省由人口大省向人力资源强省的转变。