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中国市域经济增长动态演变的空间分析

             

摘要

Regional economic growth has been one of the hot spots in the academic circles. This paper, based on the combina⁃tion of the regional economic development data and graphic data, makes an analysis on the study area by employing the Mar⁃kov chain method. The results show that Chinese urban economic development pattern of alternating high and low from 2003 to 2015;The regions along the coast and along the Yangtze River have a higher level of economic development and present a cer⁃tain regularity, and the economic growth axis has been basically appeared in an embryonic form;The central and western re⁃gions are still the areas of urban distribution with a lower level of economic development, as time goes by, the number of areas is significantly reduced in space;In the developed coastal areas, there are underdeveloped cities;There is also a less devel⁃oped corridor between the more economically developed cities. The national urban economy base and growth can be classified into four types:high base high growth, high base low growth, low base high growth and low basal low growth. The probability of transition between different types is very small, and there is a phenomenon of“club convergence”in the economy.%区域经济增长一直是学术界研究的热点之一。文章在区域经济发展数据与图形数据结合的基础上,采用了马尔科夫链的方法对研究区域进行了分析,研究结果表明:2005-2014年中国各市经济发展空间格局上高低交错;沿海和沿江区域是经济发展水平较高市域集中分布的地区,并呈现一定的规律性,经济增长轴雏形基本出现;中西部地区仍是经济发展水平较低的城市分布、区域,随着时间推移,其数量在空间上明显减少;沿海发达区内部存在着不发达市域;经济较为发达的市域之间也出现了不发达走廊。全国市域经济基础和增长可分为高基础高增长型、高基础低增长型、低基础高增长型、低基础低增长型,不同类型之间的转移概率非常小,且经济存在“俱乐部趋同”现象。

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