基于数字滑坡技术的暴雨滑坡、泥石流预警、监测模型研究

摘要

Chinese research on the rainstorm induced landslide and debris flow forecast have promoted the digital landslide technology to be applied for landslide,debris flow motoring and early warning.There are three basic principles of modeling for rainstorm induced landslide,debris flow monitoring and early warning based on digital landslide technology.The primary is the modeling must be abided by the geology principles of landslide and debris flow.Moreover,the actual situation of the study area must be taken into account during modeling.And finally,the model factors selected is limited by remote sensing methods.According to the three principles,the modeling progress divided into six steps：（1）establishing the conceptual model in view of physical relationship between geological environment and rainfall conditions of landslide and debris flow;（2）defining the essential geological environment factors and establishing the hazard evaluation expression;（3）finding some index to impress moderately the essential geological environmental factors;（4）determining the weight of indexes according to the study area,the disasters status and the environmental characteristics;（5）defining the critical value for rainfall;（6）building mathematical expression.%中国学者在暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测预报研究领域取得的成果为采用数字滑坡技术进行暴雨滑坡、泥石流预警、监测模型研究提供了宝贵的基础,应用数字滑坡技术建立暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测模型的原则是：（1）必须在滑坡、泥石流形成条件理论指导下;（2）应了解研究区地质环境及滑坡、泥石流特征;（3）就基于数字滑坡技术而言,只能选取遥感方法可能获取的灾害及环境因子。根据该3项原则,分为6个步骤建立模型：（1）确立滑坡、泥石流地质环境及降雨条件的物理关系,建立概念模型;（2）明确发生滑坡、泥石流的必要地质环境因素,建立滑坡、泥石流危险性评价表达式;（3）确定各必要地质环境因素的具体指标;（4）根据研究区灾害及地质环境特征,确定指标的权重;（5）确定降雨临界值;（6）建立模型的数学表达式。