The Markovian Approach for Probabilistic Life-Cycle Assessment of Existing Structures

摘要

The reliability of structural systems, lying in aggressive environments, changes over time. Proper maintenance is usually required to achieve a suitable performance level of life-cycle. The damage process affecting the systems often suffers from uncertainty due to the randomness involved in each environmental attack. Therefore, basing on suitable damage modeling as well as on probabilistic analysis, the main features of time-variant deterioration process are modeled and then the life-cycle is assessed. On the basis of Markov renewal theory (MRT), this paper proposes a combined approach using an appropriate time dependent damage model and probabilistic analysis. Since repairing deteriorated structures requires the arrangement of maintenance strategies, possible selective maintenance scenarios have to be considered. Referring to the relationship between MRT and an appropriate condition index, some repair strategies have been proposed and compared with each other. Those strategies are applied just to seriously deteriorated members. Furthermore selective maintenance benefits are economically investigated.