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以理性思维谋求中日关系的跨世纪发展

         

摘要

Sino-Japanese relations at the turn of the century take on three basic trends: (a) Major part of their composition is that the traditional bilateral relationship tends to be paralleled acceleratedly with the multi-lateral big power relationship network. (b) The key to determine whether Sino-Japanese relations are "full of hope" lies in communication and confidence-building as well as suspicion-eliminating. (c) The current priority is to reconstruct the mode of relationship, to enlarge cooperation fields and to solidify strategic buttress.II. Although Japan’s foreign and security policy will undoubtedly become more independent and realistic. (a) Nationalism has penetrated into its domestic politics and diplomatic as well as its security policies. (b) Conservative forces will continue to play a dominant role on its political arena while liberal forces will upsurge occationally but will not lead to configuation change. (c) The kernel of its diplomacy and security is to raise international strategic status, focusing on national interests, independence and self-reliance.III. The triangle of China, Japan and the US is the important perspective for China to consider its Japan policy. (a) Japan’s security issue can not be fundamentally solved by reinforcing Japan-US alliance. (b) The innate fragility of the alliance, namely its value discrepancy is not erased along with the publishing of the new guidelines. (c) Japan’s independent tendency particularly disturbs the US. (d) The triangle will continue to be dominated by the US, whereas the "active pushing and drawing" role of China and Japan cannot be neglected.IV. The historical transformation of Sino-Japanese relations requires relevant adjustments in policy making. How to uphold the balance between "stabilizing neighboring surroudings" and "seeking multi-polarization" to achieve the best combination in China’s Japan policy will be one of its most challenging diplomatic projects at the turn of the century. The key to reach this goal includes: (a) controlling contest posture, (b) treating differences in an objective way, (c) and seeking common benefits.

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