Contribution of Climate Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to the Study of Climate Change Impacts on Cocoa Farming in C#244;te d’Ivoire

摘要

In the particular context of climate change in Côte d’Ivoire and the vulnerability of farmers to its effects, one of the major issues is how these changes could impact cocoa yields of cocoa production areas. Thus, the objective of this study is to sustainably increase the resilience of all cocoa farming stakeholders to the impacts of climate change. The study was carried out in the central and southern areas of Côte d’Ivoire with a focus on eleven localities that have many communities of cocoa producers and a humid climate. The rainfall and temperature observation data using come from the CRU, they cover the historical period from 1971 to 2000 at 0.5o × 0.5o horizontal scale. As for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, they come from the CORDEX database and cover the 2021-2050 period. The methodology is based on the calculation of climatic indices sensitive to cocoa cultivation which are the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the amount of rain during the rainy season and the maximum temperature above 33℃. The results show that for all the localities studied, indices such as CDD and CWD could experience an increase. In addition, the total amount of rain during the long rainy season (April to June) is calculated on the basis of the threshold of 700 mm representing the minimum annual precipitation during the rainy season necessary for good growth of the cocoa tree. It reveals that for the two scenarios the cumulative rainfall will all be greater than 700 mm. Regarding temperatures, the central and southern areas could have a low number of hot days (temperature greater than or equal to 33℃ which is the tolerable threshold for cocoa cultivation). The eleven localities, therefore, remain favorable areas for cocoa cultivation in terms of climatic conditions based on temperature and rainfall, despite the regional dimension of the effects of climate change and the associated constraints.