月动力延伸预报产品在新疆月尺度降水预测中的应用检验

摘要

Abstract:Based on monthly rainfall data during January, 2001-December, 2010 from 101 observatory stations in Xinjiang and the graphic data produced by monthly dynamic extended range forecast model from National Climate Center, the forecast experiment on the explanation and reanalysis of monthly dynamical extended range forecast products was carried out.In this paper the results of interpolation prediction were tested by methods of forecast score (Ps) and anomaly sign score. The results showed that the PS score of explanation and reanalysis method of dynamical%利用新疆101个气象观测站点逐月降水实况资料和2001--2010年国家动力气候模式产品，进行月动力延伸预报产品的应用预测检验。采用R评分和同号率对内插预测结果进行效果评估，并与业务评分进行对比。结果表明：月动力延伸预报产品对新疆区域月降水趋势预测PS评分高于业务评分，而对各月降水距平百分率的同号率差异较大。夏、秋季咫评分较高，冬、春季风评分较低，季节转换时预测PS评分变率较大。