新疆15个地州首府城市最高、最低温度预报检验

摘要

利用客观统计方法,对2009—2012年新疆15个地州首府城市最高最低温度预报进行检验。结果表明：(1)15个站最高温度预报准确率高于最低温度,最高最低温度的预报准确率均呈逐年上升趋势。(2)最高最低温度预报准确率随预报时效的延长而降低,克拉玛依、吐鲁番、和田、阿图什、喀什和哈密6个站24、48、72 h预报准确率都高于平均值。(3)温度预报夏秋季好于冬春季,其中最高温度预报夏季最好,冬季最差；最低温度预报秋季最好,春季最差。(4)2012年冬季,15个站预报员主观预报与中央台指导预报的最高最低温度SST平均值基本相同,正负技巧的站点数持平,但站点差异比较大。克拉玛依、阿图什温度预报准确率高于中央台指导预报,且正技巧较高；阿勒泰、阿克苏预报准确率低于中央台指导预报,且负技巧较大。%The highest and lowest temperature forecast at 15 cities in Xinjiang was verified by use of the statistical methods. The results showed as follows.(1)The highest temperature forecast accuracy was higher than the lowest temperature and both was rising annually.(2)The forecast accuracy reduced along with extended forecast period. The forecast accuracy of six stations, including Kelamayi, Turpan, Hetian, Atushi, Kashgar and Hami ,was higher than the average for 24,48,72 hour forecast period.(3)The temperature forecast in summer and autumn was generally better than in winter and spring, the highest temperature forecast was the best in summer and the worst in winter, the lowest temperature forecast was the best in autumn and the worst in spring.(4) The average SST of forecasters subjective forecast was the same as the guidance forecast of China Meteorological Observatory (CMO) in winter of 2012. In contrast to the temperature forecast accuracy of CMO,Kelamayi and Atushi was higher,but Akesu and Aletai was lower.