西安地区玉米主要病虫害的气象预测

摘要

根据西安地区2002～2011年玉米主要病虫害总发生面积及相应气象资料，采用相关系数法、逐步回归分析方法，筛选出相关显著的气象因子，建立西安地区玉米各主要病虫害发生程度的预测模型。检验结果表明：各模型预测面积历史回代误差为0.00～0.84万 hm2，等级历史拟合率达95％，2012年和2013年的预测面积误差为0.16万～0.82万 hm2，等级准确率达100％，预测效果较好。%Based on corn main diseases and insect pests occurrence area and corresponding meteorological data in Xi’an from 2002 to 2011,using correlation coefficient and stepwise regression analysis method,selects significantly related to me-teorological factors,establish the forecast model of corn main diseases and insect pests in Xi’an.The test results show that model forecast occurrence area margin of error 0.00 to 0.84 million hectares,the history simulated results of grade differen-tial achieved 95%,the model forecast occurrence area margin of error 0.16 to 0.82 million hectares from 2012 to 2013,the grade differential of accuracy achieve 100%,effect is good.