灰色与线性回归组合模型在变形预测中的应用研究

摘要

Deformation monitoring project is a complex integrated system. Various parameters are considerable uncertainty. Deformation prediction analysis usually uses a single prediction method. Various methods have their advantages, disadvantages and applications. A single prediction method sometimes makes it difficult to determine the project properties. This paper introduces the idea of the combination forecast based on the gray GM （1,1） model to construct the gray model with linear regression combinations. It proves that the combination model can meet the engineering needs and has a certain value.%变形监测工程是一个复杂的综合系统，各种参数具有很大的不确定性。目前变形的预测分析多采用单一的预测方法，而各种方法都有各自的优缺点和应用范围，有时单一的预测方法对判定工程性质带来了困难。引入了组合预测的思想，在灰色GM（1，1）模型的基础上，构建了灰色与线性回归组合模型，通过实例计算分析，证明该组合模型满足工程需要，具有一定的使用价值。