采空区地面塌陷危险性预测评估虽然具有局限性，但根据煤层埋深、覆岩厚度、工程地质条件等选取经验数据进行先期预测，可以定量地研究煤层开采对环境造成的影响，对合理进行灾害防治具有实际意义。本文以华能新庄、肃北县牛圈子四号煤矿为研究对象，分别运用地表移动和变形预计法与地表移动范围角量参数法，分别对缓倾煤层、倾斜煤层进行采空区地面塌陷的预测，通过对预测结果的综合分析，得出宜采用地表移动角量参数法预测缓倾煤层，采用地表移动和变形预计法预测倾斜煤层，为今后类似煤矿采空区地面塌陷预测提供科学依据。%Although the coalmine mined-out area surface subsidence hazard prediction assessment has limitations, but according to conditions of coal seam buried depth, overburden thickness and engineering geological condition etc. to select empirical data carry out prediction in advance can study environmental impacts from coal mining quantitatively, thus can provide with practical significance in hazard control in reason. Taking the Huaneng Xinzhuang, Subei County Niujuanzi No.4 coalmines as study targets, the paper uses sur⁃face movement and deformation estimating method, surface movement angle measure parameter method respectively carried out gently dipping and dipping coal seams surface subsidence prediction respectively. Through comprehensive analysis of predicted results, con⁃sidered that the surface movement angle measure parameter method is suitable for gently dipping coal seam prediction;while the sur⁃face movement and deformation estimating method suitable for dipping coal seam prediction that will provide scientific basis for same kind coalmines mined-out area surface subsidence prediction henceforth.
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