后京都时期LULUCF潜在核算规则分析

摘要

<京都议定书>附件一缔约方国家通过土地利用、土地利用变化和林业(LULUCF)活动产生的碳汇减轻自身减排压力,为国内工业能源部门碳排放提供空间.但LULUCF包括的核算活动类型和具体方法一直是各方争论的焦点,其中木质林产品、不可抗力等自然干扰、参考水平闺值的设置以及总-净与净-净核算方式的选择这几方面核算漏洞很多,矛盾尤为突出.为防止发达国家过分依赖LULUCF产生的碳汇减轻减排压力,搜集了欧盟27国、加拿大、日本、俄罗斯等发达国家提交的LULUCF数据,分析了核算漏洞对LULUCF核算结果可能产生的影响.结果表明:木质林产品活动的核算方法不确定性较多;剔除自然干扰等不可抗力后,LULUCF活动碳汇至少增加30%;参考水平阈值适于设置在较高碳汇水平;净-净核算方式更适用于后京都时代LULUCF核算规则.%Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) could allow Annex I parties in the Kyoto Protocol to release their carbon emission reduction pressure, comparably expanding more emission space for their domestic industry and energy field. LULUCF activity types and specific accounting methods were always argued among different parties, where several accounting loopholes conflicted fiercely, particularly including harvest wood product, force majeure, reference level threshold value and gross-net and net-net accounting methods selection. In order to avoid developed countries taking use of the accounting loopholes of LULUCF to decrease their emission reduction pressure, the LULUCF data submitted by main developed counties in Annex I including EU27, Canada, Japan, Russia and so on, were collected in this paper. According to the analysis of these data, the loopholes might influence the accounting results of LULUCF. The results show that the uncertainty of harvest wood product was excessive; carbon sink produced by LULUCF activities would increase averagely 30% at least without force majeure; reference level threshold value of carbon sink should be set at a higher level; net-net accounting method might be more suitable for LULUCF in post-Kyoto.