碳税政策的减排效果与经济影响

摘要

This paper aimed to examine the impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation and economic growth in China by using an energy-environment-economic model based on dynamic CGE model.The results show that, 30,60 and 90 yuan RMB/t CO2 of carbon tax rate may lead to a reduction of CO2 emission by 5.56％, 10.45％, 14.74％and GDP loss rate by 0.04％, 0.10％, 0.18％ respectively in 2020 if carbon tax revenues belong to the government.The emission reductions contribute 9.9％, 18.6％, 26.2％ to the target that Chinese CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will reduce by 40％ by 2020, from 2005 levels.Negative impacts to enterprise and household will be alleviated if carbon tax revenues are recycled to them.%采用基于动态可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)构建的能源-环境-经济模型,模拟了在考虑能源利用效率提高的基础上,不同碳税税率以及碳税收入使用方式的减排效果及对经济的影响.结果表明,与基准情景相比,如果碳税收入直接归政府所有,征收30、60、90元/tCO2碳税,2020年的减排率分别为5.56%,10.45%和14.74%,GDP损失率分别为0.04%、0.10%和0.18%.征收碳税可实现的减排量,分别相当于实现2020年CO2排放强度比2005年下降40%的目标所需减排量的9.9%、18.6%和26.2%.将碳税收入返还给企业和居民,能在一定程度上缓解对企业和居民的负面影响.