南宁太阳总辐射长期变化特征

摘要

Based on the solar radiation observation data in Nanning from 1961 to 2009, the characteristics of solar radiation change for recent 49 years were investigated, by using the linear-trend estimate and the Mann-Kendall test.The results show that: 1) The global solar radiation overally showed a weakly decreasing tendency over the 49 years at a rate of 28.9 MJ/m2 per 10 years, with a main decreasing trend in the period 1961-1992, while an obvious increasing trend after 1993.2) The global solar radiation generally decreased in spring, autumn and winter, especially in winter, while it increased weakly in summer.3) The analysis results show that total cloud cover and visibility are the two important factors influencing the variations of global solar radiation in Nanning.%利用南宁气象站1961-2009年太阳辐射观测资料,运用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验等方法对近49年来太阳辐射变化的主要特征进行了分析.结果表明,近49年来年太阳总辐射呈弱下降趋势,下降突变点为1964年,线性下降速率为28.9(MJ/m2)/10a,其中下降主要发生在1961-1992年,1993年后显著增加;春、秋和冬季太阳总辐射变化趋势和全年相似,夏季则呈弱增加趋势.分析表明,总云量和表征气溶胶多少的能见度是影响太阳总辐射变化的主要气象因子.