In the afternoon of June 1, 2017, the United States President Trump officially announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, thus study on the reasons of withdrawal, the follow up impact and coping strategies became the focus of the international community. Based on the self-developed the United States policy evaluation model, this paper systematically evaluates the three gaps of global climate change mitigation, finance and governance after the United States declared its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and put forward China's response strategy and suggestion. The study shows that the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will impact on the existence and implementation of successive climate policies and make the United States' GHG emissions in 2030 reach 5.79 (5.60?5.98) billion tons of CO2-eq, which is equivalent to a decrease of 12.1% (9.1%?15.0%) at the 2005 level and a rise of 1.64 (1.25?2.01) billion tons of CO2-eq emission compared to the NDC scenario, and cause additional 8.8% to 13.4% of the global emission reductions deficit. The refusal of the United States to continue to meet its financial support obligations will also worse the situation of current climate finance mechanism. The global climate fund's funding gap will increase by US$ 2 billion, while the gap in long-term climate finance will increase by about US$ 5 billion per year. With at least 40% increase in GCF contributions from Japan and the European Union (EU), while an at least 25.2% increase of EU and its member states' overall financial support, can fulfill the financial deficit caused by the United States. The United States is an important party in the global climate governance, and the impact of the United States' withdrawal has spread to the main agenda of global governance, it is unrealistic to expect China-EU, BASIC plus, and so on to quickly fill the governance deficit caused by the United States at short time and the "low period" of global governance may inevitably last for a while. Although the international community is looking forward to China's leadership in global climate governance, China should have a clear understanding of the cost, benefits and feasibility of playing "leading role" and shall remain be cautious and determine its strategy in addressing climate through long-term plans. At the same time, China should focus more on domestic work, reach a strategic consensus on climate change, and preparing for "leadership" in long-term. China should also actively promote the international cooperation at all levels to find a way to deal with "three deficits" problem.%2017年6月1日,美国总统特朗普正式宣布退出《巴黎协定》,有关美国退协原因、后续影响和应对策略的研究成为国际社会关注的焦点.本文基于自主构建的美国政策评估模型,综合定性定量分析,系统评估了美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》可能造成的全球气候变化减缓、资金和治理"三大赤字",并据此提出中国的应对策略和建议.研究表明,考虑美国退协对后续政策的影响,美国2030年的排放将有可能达57.9(56.0~59.8)亿t CO2-eq,仅相当于在2005年的水平上下降12.1%(9.1%~15.0%),相对自主贡献目标情景将上升16.4(12.5~20.1)亿t CO2-eq,额外增加8.8%~13.4%的全球减排赤字.美国拒绝继续履行资金支持义务还将使得本不充裕的气候资金机制更加雪上加霜,绿色气候基金(GCF)的筹资缺口将增加20亿美元,而长期气候资金(LTF)的缺口每年将增加50亿美元左右.这就要求欧盟和日本对GCF的捐助至少上升40%,同时欧盟及其成员国的长期资金支持至少上浮25.2%才能填补上述资金赤字.美国是全球气候博弈的重要一方,且美国退协的影响已蔓延至全球治理的主要议事平台,期望中欧、基础四国+等模式短期内迅速填补美国退出后全球气候治理的治理赤字是不现实的,政治推动乏力的情况可能会在今后一段时期内始终存在.虽然国际社会对中国领导全球气候治理充满期待,但中国应有清醒认识,全面评估"接盘"美国领导力的成本、效益和可行性,并秉持"国家利益"优先的原则,谋定而后动.同时,中国应聚焦国内工作,凝聚应对气候变化的战略共识,做好长期战略谋划,并积极推动国际社会从合作中寻找出路应对"三大赤字"难题.
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