气候变化及人类活动对西北干旱区水资源影响研究综述

摘要

本文回顾了西北干旱区气候变化事实及其对水资源影响的最新研究进展,从气候变化和人类活动两个角度综述了水资源变化的原因,以及未来西北干旱区水资源变化与适应对策.研究表明:1961年以来西北干旱区呈现明显暖湿化趋势,其中冬季增温最快,夏季降水增加速率最大.伊利河谷、塔城等地区增温趋势最大,北疆降水量增加最多.受气候变暖导致冰雪快速消融和山区降水增加的影响,西北干旱区西部河流黑河、疏勒河、塔里木河出山口径流量显著增加.由于东部河流石羊河径流的补给主要靠降水,降水的减少导致径流呈现下降趋势.不合理人类活动造成石羊河、黑河和开都河中下游径流减少.本文提出了西北干旱区亟待深入研究的任务:极端天气气候事件的变化规律及其对水资源影响;未来气候变化和水资源的预估;气候变化归因研究;气候变化-社会经济活动一体化适应策略选择;水资源科学合理定量分配等.%This study reviews the latest progress in research on climate change and water resources in the arid area of Northwest China, analyzes the cause of water resource changes within the region from the perspective of climate change and human activities, and summarizes future likely changes in water resources and associated adaptation strategies. The research shows that the climate in the region has experienced warming and wetting with the most significant warming in winter and the highest increase of precipitation in summer since 1961. Areas with the most significant warming trends include the Qaidam Basin, the Yili River Valley, Tacheng city. Spatially, the increasing trend in precipitation becomes increasingly significant from the southeast to the northwest and northern Xinjiang experienced the highest increase. Studies have shown a decrease in headwater of Shiyang River because runoff is mainly based on precipitation with a decrease trend. But an increase in western rivers was observed such Tarim River and Shule River as well as Heihe River due to rapid glacier shrinkage and snowmelt as well as precipitation increase in mountain area. Meanwhile unreasonable human activities resulted in decrease of runoff in the middle and lower reaches of Haihe River, Shiyang River and Kaidu River. Finally, recommendations for future studies are suggested that include characteristics of changes in extreme weather events and their impacts on water resources, projections of future climate and water resource changes, climate change attribution, the selection of adaptation strategies relating to climate change and social economic activities, and use of scientific methods to quantitatively determine water resource allocation.