气候变化对河南烟区烤烟r化学品质的影响

摘要

Basing on the meteorological data from the 64 meteorology stations and the data of the main chemical components of the middle tobacco leaves from 2003 to 2012 in Henan flue-cured tobacco-growing areas, the variations of climatic factors and the main climatic characteristics that affected the chemical components of the middle tobacco leaves of Henan flue-cured tobacco-growing areas were revealed using the mathematical statistics.On the basis of the above, the changes of the chemical quality were studied under the two RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios in future. The results showed as follows. From 2003 to 2012, in Henan flue-cured tobacco-growing areas, the heat factors and light factor increased, however, the trends didn't show obvious significance, the water factors decreased significantly. At the maturity stage, the diurnal temperature range and maximum temperature increased obviously. During the fast growing stage and the maturity stage, the rainy days (daily precipitation ≥ 0.1 mm) and relative humidity decreased obviously. The light factor decreased during the root elongating stage and the fast growing stage and increased during the maturity stage, however, the trends didn't show obvious significance. The main chemical components of the middle tobacco leaves had close relationship with meteorological factors and differed for different indexes in Henan flue-cured tobacco-growing areas. The obvious negative correlation was obtained between solar radiation during fast growing stage and the comprehensive evaluation value of chemical composition. The chemical quality of the flue-cured tobacco leaves in Henan flue-cured tobacco-growing areas would be decreasing because of the obvious increase of solar radiation during fast growing stage under the future climate change, especially under the scenario of RCP8.5.%利用河南烟区2003—2012年64个气象站气象资料以及烤烟中部叶主要化学成分数据,采用数理统计分析方法,明确烟区气候要素变化特征以及影响烤烟烟叶化学品质指标的主要气候因子,在此基础上,探讨RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathways,简称RCP)和RCP8.5两种未来气候情景下河南烟区烤烟化学品质可能的变化.结果表明,2003—2012年河南烟区大田期温热要素和光照因素增加但不显著,水湿要素呈显著减少.3个生育阶段,成熟期的气温日较差和最高气温显著增加;旺长期和成熟期的降水日数和相对湿度呈显著下降;光照因素表现为伸根期和旺长期减少、成熟期增加,但均不显著.河南烟区烤烟化学品质指标与气候要素间的关系密切,不同指标间影响因素具有差异;旺长期太阳总辐射是影响化学成分协调性评分的主要气候因素,呈显著负相关.在未来气候变化下,由于旺长期太阳总辐射高于气候基准期(1981—2010年)平均值并在未来呈显著增加趋势,将导致烤烟化学成分协调性评分下降,两种情景下以RCP8.5情景下降更明显.