基于1990-2015年世界前20个排放大国碳排放量和国内生产总值 (GDP) 的时间序列数据, 采用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验, 对主要排放大国碳排放与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析.通过协整分析得出大多数国家的碳排放量与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系;碳排放量和GDP的格兰杰检验结果显示, 大多数世界排放大国碳排放与经济增长之间存在单向因果关系.发达国家主要表现为经济增长是碳排放的格兰杰原因, 发展中国家则主要表现为碳排放是经济增长的格兰杰原因.研究结果反映了发达国家和发展中国家在碳减排问题上的阶段性特征, 碳减排对发展中国家经济发展的负面影响明显大于发达国家.基于格兰杰因果分析结果, 国际气候治理进程中关于要求发展中国家现阶段提出大幅减排目标的诉求不符合发展中国家发展阶段特征, 可能影响发展中国家经济发展的正常秩序和规律.发达国家基于历史排放责任、发展阶段和能力, 都应该带头开展减排行动, 并帮助发展中国家实现转型、升级发展, 降低经济发展对碳排放的依赖.国际气候治理需要根据并考虑不同国家的发展需求和特征, 形成国际合作制度安排, 实现社会经济发展与全球气候治理的协同.%Based on the time sequence data of carbon emissions and GDP of the world''s top 20 emitters between1990-2015, this paper conducts a cointegration analysis and Granger Causality Test to empirically analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in the world''s major emitters. According to the cointegration analysis, there remains a long-term balanced relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in most countries;furthermore, in the light of the results deduced from the Granger Causality Test concerning carbon emissions and GDP, there exists a one-way relationship of causality between carbon emissions and economic growth in most of the major emitters. In developed countries, the relationship is mainly manifested in the economic growth as a Granger cause of carbon emissions;whereas for developing nations, the opposite is true. Research findings have reflected the stage characteristics of developed and developing countries in terms of CO2 emissions reduction, suggesting that emission reduction obviously exerts a more negative influence on the economic growth of developing nations than their developed counterparts. On the ground of the conclusion drawn from Granger Causality analysis, this paper holds that at the current stage, demand for developing countries to set forth a substantial emission reduction target in the process of international climate governance is not in accordance with the characteristics of their development stages, which may probably affects the normal order and rules of economic development in developing countries. Developed countries, based on their historical emission responsibility, development stage and capability, should take a lead in undertaking emission reduction actions, assist developing countries with transition and upgrading, in order to reduce their dependence of economic growth on carbon emissions. International climate governance needs to base on and take into account the development demand and features of various countries to establish institutional arrangements of international cooperation, so as to push for a concerted and coordinated relationship between socio-economic development and global climate governance.
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