民用飞机市场需求预测方法研究

摘要

民用飞机市场预测包含需求(航空运量)预测和供应(飞机机队)预测两个部分，其中需求预测为自上而下的预测，是对航空市场宏观运量进行分析和预测，这部分预测在预测模型中起着非常重要的作用。针对民用飞机市场需求预测方法和流程进行了详细的论述，该方法是大型客机市场预测和市场研究工作的基础。%The civil aircraft market forecast includes two parts:demand( aviation traffic) forecast and supply( air-craft fleet) forecast. The demand forecast is top-down forecast, which is the analysis and forecast of aviation market macroscopic traffic, and this part of forecast is very important role in the forecast model. The forecast method and process of market demand for civil aviation are discussed in detail in this paper. The method is the basic of market forecast and market research for commercial airliner.