从年龄梯度变迁观点分析开发区公共服务设施供给和需求变化特点,结合需求层次演进的分析框架和杭州湾经济开发区业已呈现的功能综合和内容多元的新城发展趋势,分析得出:开发区的人口年龄结构依次表现为增加型、稳定型、缩减型,其主导需求层次和消费曲线峰值将随之由低级向高级演进.在运用组群存续法、供给需求绩效、空间等多种手段分析后,得出开发区在近远期公共服务功能类型需求、规模梯次和空间布局模式,指导适应不同需求的公共服务多元差异供给,引导开发区沿着“公平”和“协调”的方向发展.%Combining with the analysis on needs hierarchy evolution and the multi-functional new city development trend of Hangzhou Bay Economic Development Zone, this article analyzes the characteristics of the supply and demand of public service from perspective of age gradient changes. It indicates that the age structure of the development zone comprises three types including, growing, stable and decreasing, and the leading needs hierarchy and peak of consumption curve will climb from low to high levels. By the methods of group age prediction, effect on supply and demand, and space, it elicits the long-term and short-term demands for the functions and types of public service, the scale echelon and the spatial distribution pattern in development zone, which could guide the multi-supply of public service for different demands therefore direct the development zone towards the "fair" and "coordinated" target.
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