为进一步明确丽江烟区烤烟大田生育期降水资源的时空分布特征，采用线性趋势拟合和“逐步回归的趋势面模拟+残差内插”法对丽江主产烟区4个气候观测站1959—2009年的降水量数据进行了分析。结果表明，丽江烟区降雨充沛，烤烟全生育期平均降水量760.61 mm，降水量时间变化为移栽至团棵期少、旺长期和成熟期较多，适宜优质烟叶的生产，但各年份及各生育期间降水变率较大，空间分布呈现出由东北向西南逐级递减的趋势。烤烟各生育期降水大约10年为1个周期，呈倒S型曲线变化，预测2010—2020年丽江烟区烤烟移栽至团棵期降水呈下降趋势，旺长期和成熟期降水呈增加趋势。%Based on the precipitation data from 1959 to 2009 in Lijiang, linear trend equation and regression trendliness models were used to estimate the characteristics and change trend of precipitation during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco. The results showed that the precipitation variability was big among years and growth stages of flue-cured tobacco in the areas, while the precipitation in the most years could meet water requirements of flue-cured tobacco. The mean of precipitation is 760.61mm during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco According to the simulations, the precipitation during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco in Lijiang appeared to have remarkable difference, where a clearly downward tendency from northeast to southwest could be seen. In the last 51 years, the precipitation during transplanting to maturation stages of flue-cured tobacco showed inverted S-shaped curve in a 10-year cycle. The preliminary forecasted that precipitation decreasing trend during transplanting to resettling growth stage and precipitation increasing trend during vigorous to maturation stage from 2010 to 2020.
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