基于贝叶斯网络的关键链项目管理模型

摘要

For the project schedule management problems, the critical chain project management Bayesian network model (CCPMBN) based on the critical chain project management and Bayesian network technologies was established. Firstly, the definition of CCPMBN was proposed and the nodes, edges and conditional probability distribution of nodes in CCPMBN were described in detail. Secondly, the critical chain procedure breakdown algorithm was demonstrated and the CCPMBN modeling method was established based on the critical chain. Thirdly, the resource conflict mode in critical chain and corresponding solutions were discussed. Finally, the basic properties and characteristics of CCPMBN verify its advantages in project schedule management.%针对项目进度管理问题,在分析关键链项目管理方法和贝叶斯网络模型技术的基础上,建立了关键链项目管理贝叶斯网络模型(CCPMBN).首先给出了CCPMBN的基本定义,详述了模型中的节点、有向边及节点条件概率分布信息.然后,提出了面向贝叶斯网络的关键链工序分解方法,研究了基于项目关键链信息的CCPMBN建模方法.针对关键链模型中的大量资源冲突情况,分析了CCPMBN中的各类冲突结构,并给出了冲突描述及化解方法.最后,通过CCPMBN基本性质和特征分析表明了贝叶斯网络模型在项目进度管理中的应用前景.