NegFry马铃薯晚疫病预测预报模型的评价

摘要

本研究主要应用丹麦NegFry马铃薯晚疫病预测预报模型，以不喷药和每7 d喷药作对照，采用感病品种‘Favorita’和中抗品种‘克新18’进行田间试验，对马铃薯晚疫病进行预测和防治。感病品种不喷药处理（CK1）、感病品种每7 d施药处理（FW）、感病品种测报处理（FN）、中抗品种不喷药处理（CK2）、中抗品种每7 d施药处理（KW）和中抗品种测报处理（KN）的AUDPC值分别为12.73、0.12、0.17、0.12、0.074和0.034，通过邓肯多重极差法（LSR法）进行比较， CK1与FW， FN， CK2， KW， KN 5个处理差异显著，其余各处理之间差异不显著。说明采用测报处理，每7 d施药处理和采用抗病品种能够达到同等防治效果。对于感病品种，测报处理与每7 d施药处理相比减少杀菌剂使用次数2次，每667 m2降低成本70元，与每7 d施药处理相比每667 m2增收27元。对于抗病品种，测报处理与每7 d施药处理相比减少杀菌剂使用次数5次，每667 m2降低成本160元，与每7 d施药处理相比每667 m2增收213元。所以，通过丹麦NegFry预测预报模型，可以准确得出施药时间，既降低生产成本，又有效防控马铃薯晚疫病，同时又提高马铃薯产量和质量。%The potato late blight forecasting model is an efficient tool to deal with this problem. The purpose of this study was to apply NegFry forecasting model for the control of late blight in Heilongjiang Province, with no application and application of fungicides weekly as controls and using susceptible variety 'Favorita' and moderately resistant variety 'Kexin 18' as tested plant materials. Area under Disease Progress Curve (AUDPC) of CK1 (susceptible variety with no fungicide application), FW (susceptible variety with fungicide application weekly), FN (susceptible variety with fungicide application based on Negfry model), CK2 (resistant variety with no fungicide application), KW (resistant variety with fungicide application weekly), and KN (resistant variety with fungicide application based on Negfry model), were 12.73, 0.12, 0.17, 0.12, 0.074 and 0.034, respectively. Significant difference was found between CK1 and FW, FN, CK2, KW, and KN for AUDPC as tested by using DMRT, but for the five treatments no significant difference was detected, suggesting that fungicide application based on Negfry model, application weekly, and using resistant variety al could reach the same effect for late blight control. For the susceptible variety, fungicide application based on Negfry model was reduced by two times, application cost reduced by 70 Yuan/667 m2, and benefit increased by 27 Yuan/667 m2 compared with application weekly. For the resistant variety, fungicide application based on Negfry model was reduced by 5 times, application cost reduced by 160 Yuan/667 m2, and benefit increased by 213 Yuan/667 m2 compared with application weekly. Therefore, by using Negfry model fungicide application time could be predicted, and the production cost reduced, but late blight control ed, and potato yield and quality improved accordingly.