基于可拓理论的台风灾害评估技术研究——以海南岛为例

摘要

Hainan Island is selected as a case study area, which frequently has serious typhoon disaster. In this research, according to the analysis and study of reasons of typhoon disaster formation, the extension model of typhoon disaster evaluation for Hainan Island was build based on extension theory. The standard matter element of typhoon disaster evaluation for Hainan was made out with statistics method based on the environment background and the typhoon disaster database. 0907 typhoon " Goni" was taken as an example to test its effect of the application, which showed that the model calculate result was very similarly to the actual disaster situation.%选择台风灾害多发区的海南岛作为研究区,通过对台风灾害成因的分析研究,在台风灾害形成环境背景和台风灾害数据库的基础上,利用统计方法确定评估模型中的各类参数.运用可拓理论建立海南岛台风灾害评估可拓模型,并以0907号台风“天鹅”为例检验其实际应用的效果.