瓜菜苗期湿涝是海南冬种瓜菜重要的农业气象灾害之一。根据海南冬种瓜菜苗期自然降水情况，利用正交旋转组合设计，在温室内人工模拟降水量和降水天数，得出番茄苗期湿涝死苗率的回归模型，回归方程达到极显著水平。模型表明降水量越大，对番茄苗期湿涝危害越大。当降水天数达到一定量时，随着降水日数增多，死苗率随之增大。%Waterlogging is the important agricultural meteorological disaster for winter vegetables on seedling stage in Hainan Island. This study is based on statistics of Hainan natural rainfall conditions during winter vegetables seedling stage, considered amount and duration of precipitation two factors, the experiment was designed by orthogonal rotation. The experiment was performed in the greenhouse, and artificial control precipitation amount and duration. At last a regression model of the seedlings death rate was obtained. The regression equation was extremely significant. The results show that the greater precipitation, larger precipitation intensity will lead to more waterlogging harm to tomato. When precipitation continued for a certain day, the seedlings death rate was increased with the increase of precipitation days.
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