基于变权TOPSIS法的舰艇对空防御威胁评估模型

摘要

Threat evaluation is of vital significance to the ship's command and control system of air de⁃fense. As the conventional threat evaluation method is based on constant weight summation and, therefore, leads to unreasonable results, this paper incorporates a variable weight mechanism into the threat evalua⁃tion system. State variable weight vectors are first constructed and adjusted under different conditions. The threat evaluation index system is presented after a thorough consideration that combines target attributes and the efficiency of air defense combat. Based on variable weights TOPSIS, the threat evaluation model is established for warships to defend air targets. Finally, case analysis shows that the proposed model is scien⁃tifically effective, which provides theoretical and methodological reference to the threat evaluation of war⁃ships in air target defense.%威胁评估是舰艇对空防御指挥控制的关键环节之一。针对传统威胁评估方法在确定指标权重时采用常权重加权求和所带来的评估不合理的问题，将变权理论引入到舰艇对空防御的威胁评估中，构造状态变权向量表达式，使得权重随态势变化而做出相应调整。综合考虑目标属性与本舰防空武器性能，给出威胁评估指标体系，并结合“逼近于理想排序法”（TOPSIS）构建舰艇对空防御威胁评估模型。实例分析表明，该模型得到的评估结果较为科学合理，为舰艇对空防御威胁评估提供了理论与方法的参考。