Objective To establish a probabilistic model for evaluation of dietary exposure to lead and construct age-related exposure centiles for the residents in Jiangsu. Methods Lead contamination data were obtained from the national food contamination monitoring program during 2001 -2006 and 2791 samples from 232 food products in Jiangsu were included. Food consumption data were from the national diet and nutrition survey conducted in 2002,including 3938 subjects in Jiangsu. A non-parametric probabilistic model using Monte Carlo simulation was applied to derive the intake distribution. The intake data was then analyzed using the LMS method,which constructs exposure percentiles adjusted for the median ( M), the coefficient of variation (S) and the skewness (L) of the intake distribution. Results The median and P99 of the lead exposure for the residents in Jiangsu were 1.02 μg · kg-1 · d-1 and 9.29 μg · kg-1 · d-1,respectively. 6. 38％ of the total population showed to have a lead intake exceeding the tolerable limit,which for the urban and rural population were 4. 31％ and 7. 06％ ,respectively. The exceeding rate for children of 2-10 years old from the urban and rural areas were 13. 17％ and 17.70％, respectively.Conclusion There was a large variation in the lead exposure level of the population in Jiangsu;People in rural areas are in greater risk for higher lead exposure than urban people;The dietary exposure to lead for children and the high-end population was serious.%目的 了解江苏省居民膳食铅暴露状况，建立年龄别膳食铅暴露量百分位数曲线。方法 收集2002年中国居民营养与健康状况调查中江苏省8个县（市/区）1451个家庭共计3938名居民连续3d的膳食消费量数据和2001-2006年江苏省食品污染物监测网中的铅监测数据，包括232种食品的2791条记录。采用非参数概率评估模型，通过Monte Carlo模拟获得人群膳食铅暴露量分布；采用偏度系数-中位数-变异系数(LMS)方法绘制暴露量年龄别百分位数。结果 江苏省居民膳食铅暴露量中位数、第99百分位数(99)估计值分别为1.02、9.29μg·kg-1 ·d-1。全省6.38％的人群暴露量超出耐受摄人量，城市与农村人群超标率估计值分别为4.31％和7.06％，其中2～10岁城乡儿童超标率估计值分别为13.17％和17.70％。结论 江苏省居民膳食铅暴露量人群变异性大；农村居民暴露量普遍高于城市；儿童及高端暴露人群铅摄人量较高。
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