我国油菜生产应对气候变化的对策和措施分析

摘要

This paper analyzed climate influence on rapeseed plant and productions in recent years in China. Results showed that potential cultivation area of winter rapeseed significantly increased with increased temperature. Conventional pattern of rapeseed production changed significantly, accompanied by the trends of decreasing - in -east - regions, northward - moving and westward - expanding. Rapeseed production instability significantly increased due to uneven rainfall distribution, frequent occurrence of extreme weather and decreased seed yield per u-nit area. In response to the climate challenge, policies and strategies were suggested including integrating breeding and cultivation.%本文分析了近年来气候变化特点及其对我国油菜生态环境和油菜生产的影响.结果表明,随着气温升高,冬油菜潜在种植面积显著增加,传统的油菜生产格局发生改变,体现出明显的“东减、北移、西扩”特征；由于降水分布不均、极端气候事件频繁,油菜单产增加趋势减缓,油菜生产的不稳定性显著增加.根据当前油菜生产所面临的问题,提出了整合育种和栽培措施的应对策略.