带有对称误差的群体药代动力学参数的贝叶斯估计

摘要

目的:研究对称分布用于药代动力学中参数的估计是否合理.方法:在广义线性模型框架下,以贝叶斯方法推导出模型中各回归参数的后验,再用MCMC算法结合模拟得出参数的具体值.结果:对5 000次模拟的结果进行统计分析,得到各参数的点估计值和置信域及相应图表,符合模拟的预设值.对称分布与广义线性模型结合,得到了较好的参数估计值.结论:群体药物代谢动力学中可以考虑使用对称分布进行参数的估计.%Objective: To evaluate whether the symmetrical distribution is reasonable for estimating the parameters in population pharmacokinetics. Methods; Bayesian method and Monte Carlo simulation were used for estimating the regression parameters under the frame of the generalized linear model. Results; The point estimates and confidence regions of the parameters were obtained, and the results were accordance with the pre-specified values. A relatively good estimating result was obtained with the combination of symmetric distributions with the generalized linear model. Conclusion; Symmetrical distributions are reasonable for the study of population pharmacokinetics.