老年危重症患者预后预测模型的研究进展

摘要

急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分(APACHE)和简化急性生理评分(SAPS)等传统模型虽然预测危重症患者的死亡较可靠,但预测老年危重症患者的预后却可能会出现预测偏移或群体校准不良,而针对老年人研发出的专用预测模型不具有足够的准确性和可靠性.因此,衰弱综合征成为了目前老年综合评估的核心,研究表明衰弱指数(FI)、衰弱分级(CFS)可作为衡量衰弱综合征的客观模型,已成为老年危重症预后评估的研究热点.本文综述了这些评估模型的发展进程及研究进展,以期临床医师能够更好地应用它们.%Although Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) show good predictive effect on critically ill patients, they may have predictive data migration or poor population calibration when being used in the elderly critically ill patients.However, the established special prediction models for elderly are not of enough accuracy and reliability.So, frailty syndrome has become the key point in geriatric comprehensive assessment.Current studies showed that frailty index (FI) and clinical frailty scale (CFS) can be used as the objective models to assess frailty syndrome, and have become hotspot in the studies on predictive assessment for critically ill elderly.This article reviewed the development process and research progress of these predictive models, with a view of clinicians for better application.