基于合理平均住院日的我国医院资源优化配置研究与预测

摘要

目的：构建数学模型测算我国缩短医院出院者平均住院日1天可节约的医院资源，并预测对未来的影响，探讨缩短平均住院日对医院资源优化配置的重要性。方法利用数学模型定量分析缩短平均住院日1天对我国医院资源配置的实际影响，并采用灰色模型预测2013年至2025年我国医院缩短平均住院日1天可节约的医院资源。结果缩短平均住院日1天可节约医院床位总数的9.41%。根据我国医院床位增长趋势以及配置关系，预计2013年至2025年，缩短平均住院日1天后我国医院资源节约情况将持续增加。结论应进一步缩短平均住院日，优化医院资源配置，坚持医疗质量为前提，减少低效或无效等待时间，以缩短平均住院日为切入点来提高卫生医疗资源利用的综合效益。%Objective To measure and predict the hospital resources to be saved by reducing one day of stay in average in China,predict its future impacts,and to probe into the importance of less average days of stay for hospital resource deployment.Methods A mathematical model was used for quantitative analysis of the actual impacts of one less day of stay in China′s hospitals for the hospital resources,and the gray forecasting model was used to predict the hospital resources so saved by achieving so during 2013 to 2025.Results One hospital day less could save 9.41% of a hospital′s total bed resources.According to the growing trend of hospital beds in China and the deployment relationship,it is predicted that more hospital resources will be saved by one hospital day less in average from 2013 to 2025.Conclusions Shorter average days of stay and optimal deployment of hospital resources,should be based on quality of care.Less ineffective waiting time to shorten average days of stay can be breakthrough to improve the comprehensive efficiency of health resources.