分级诊疗能节省成本吗?——基于系统动力学模型的浙江省诊疗系统分级优化成本测算

摘要

虽然多国的经验证明了分级诊疗能够有效配置、利用卫生资源,但中国目前由于无序就医造成资源的浪费尚无精确估计.逐步建立健全分级诊疗制度成为中国新医改的重要发展方向,因此有必要对改革可能带来的效益进行估算.本研究以浙江省为例,采用系统动力学方法仿真诊疗系统模型,以不同的分级优化模式为情境对系统进行分级优化,分析成本节约情况.结果显示,如果基层首诊率在目前的水平上增加10%,直接医疗成本将节约2.51亿,如果基层首诊增加15%,直接医疗成本将节约3.9亿.如果基层首诊率达最高意愿水平(72.35%),县域内就达到分级诊疗改革阶段性目标(90%),那么三级医院门诊量将减少0.13亿人次,基层医疗卫生服务机构增加0.74亿人次,节约直接医疗成本30.16亿元.%The experience of various countries proves that the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment model can lead to reasonable resources allocation and utilization, however, the waste of China''s disordered treatment model has not been estimated.Nowadays, it is very important to establish a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system during China''s healthcare system reform.Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the benefit the reform may bring.We take Zhejiang Province as an example, and adopted the system dynamics model to build the health delivery system, to emulate the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment model and the disordered model, and to evaluate the benefit.Results showed that if first option at the primary health institutions increased 10%, it could save 0.251 billion yuan, and if increased 15%, it could save 0.39 billion yuan.If the first option at the primary health institution reached 72.35% and the treatment in county reached 90%, the outpatient in tertiary hospital could reduce by 13 million, and those in primary healthcare institutions could increase by 74 million yuan.The direct healthcare cost could reduce 3.016 billion Yuan.