目的 探讨BP神经网络预测模型在分析气象因素与脑出血死亡率关系中的应用.方法 根据BP神经网络的特性,利用MATLAB 7.0软件的神经网络工具箱对2007-2009年哈尔滨市气象数据建立脑出血死亡率的BP神经网络预报模型,并与传统的多元线性回归模型进行比较.结果 利用多元线性回归结果显示脑出血死亡率与最高气温、最小相对湿度呈负相关,与平均相对湿度、日照时数呈正相关.脑出血死亡率的非线性相关系数(RNL)为0.7854,平均绝对误差百分比( MAPE)为0.21,均方误差(MSE)为0 22,平均绝对识差(MAE)为0.19,预测准确度(P)为81.31%,平均误差率为0.19.BP神经网络模型的拟合结果显示,脑出血死亡率的RNL为0 7967,MAPE 为0.19,MSE为0.21,MAE为0.18,P为82.53%,平均误差率为0.17.结论 应用BP神经网络预测模型对2010年哈尔滨市脑出血死亡率进行预报,通过与多元线性回归模型预报结果进行比较,表明该模型具有更高的预报准确度.%Objective Using the Back Propagation (BP) Neural Network Model to discover the relationship between meteorological factors and mortality of intracerebral hemorrhage,to provide evidence for developing an intracerebral hemorrhage prevention and control program,in Harbin.Methods Based on the characteristics of BP neural network,a neural network Toolbox of MATLAB 7.0 software was used to build Meteorological data of 2007-2009 with intracerebral hemorrhage mortality to predict the effect of BP neural network model,and to compare with the traditional multivariate linear regression model. Results Datas from the multivariate linear regrcssion indicated that the cerebral hemorrhage death mortality had a negative correlation with maximum temperatureand minimum humidity while having a positive correlation with the average relative humidity and the hours of sunshine.The linear correlation coefficient of intracerebral hemorrhage mortality was 0.7854,with mean absolute percentage (MAPE) as 0.21,mean square error (MSE) as 0.22,mean absolute error(MAE) as 0.19.The accuracy of forecasting was 81.31% with an average error rate as 0.19.The Fitting results of BP neural network model showed that non-linear correlation coefficient of intracerebral hemorrhage mortality was 0.7967,with MAPE as 0.19,MSE as 0.21,MAE as 0.18.The forecasting accuracy was 82.53% with the average error rate as 0.17.Conclusion The BP neural network model showed a higher forecasting accuracy when compared to the multiple linear regression model on intraccrebral hemorrhage mortality,using the data of 2010' s.
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机译:释放气体放射性废物的授权。 Centrale Gravelines公共查询。调查文件。注释。气象数据的准确性足够。判决废止。在文本中不需要的初步研究中需要分析气体和液体排放的累积影响。单独的程序。需要重复初步研究的所有要素(否)。影响研究。内容。天然放射性的测量。分析效果,选择位置的原因。足够的细节。该法令的内容。拒绝条款。条款和条件仅适用于正常操作条件。合法性(是)。缺少关于测量和分析实验室现场是否存在的明确规定。违法(否)。 1976年8月10日法令所定义的一般要求。 (第44-670号)。