宁波市大气颗粒物与人群因心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列研究

摘要

Objective To explore the short-term effect of particulate matters with an aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 10 μg (PM10) and aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 2.5 μg (PM2.5) on cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Ningbo city.Methods Daily cardiocerebrovascular mortality data from 2011 to 2014 in Ningbo city were collected and the time series study using a semi-parametric generalized additive model were used to evaluate the relationship between the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease and particulate matters after adjustment for the long-term trend of death,weather conditions,"days of the week" and other confounding factors.Results In single-pollutant model,the short-term effects of particulate matter on cardio-cerebrovascular mortality was strongest in lagged 2 days in Ningbo city,and an increase of 10 μg/m3 in moving average concentrations (lagged 2-3 days and lagged 2-4 days) of PM2.5 and PM10 could increase the cardio-cerebrovascular mortality by 0.55％ (0.23％-0.87％) and 0.53％ (0.28％-0.78％),respectively.In multi-pollutant models,PM10 did remain robust after being adjusted for PM2.5 with 0.58％ (0.09％-1.07％) increase in cardio-cerebrovascular mortality.The effect of PM2.5 had no statistical significantce after being adjusted for other co-pollutants.Conclusion These findings suggested that the concentrations of ambient particulate matters were associated with an increased risk of daily cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Ningbo city.%目的 探讨宁波市空气中粒径≤2.5 μm的颗粒物(PM2.5)和≤10 μm的颗粒物(PM10)对人群因心脑血管疾病死亡的影响.方法 采用时间序列的广义相加模型,控制时间的长期趋势、季节效应、气象因素及“星期几效应”等混杂因素后,分析2011-2014年宁波市大气颗粒物日均浓度对人群心脑血管疾病死亡的短期效应.结果 单污染物模型分析显示,宁波市大气颗粒物浓度在滞后2d对心脑血管疾病死亡的效应最强.PM2.5和PM10的移动平均浓度(滞后2～3d和滞后2～4 d)每升高10 μg/m3分别造成心脑血管疾病死亡增加0.55％(0.23％ ～ 0.87％)和0.53％(0.28％～0.78％).多污染物模型分析显示,调整了其他污染物后,PM10与人群心脑血管疾病死亡增加相关,纳入PM2.5后,心脑血管疾病死亡增加0.58％(0.09％ ～ 1.07％);PM2.5与人群心脑血管疾病死亡增加无关.结论 大气颗粒物浓度升高与宁波市人群因心脑血管疾病死亡增加相关.