作者旨在探寻全球尺度上非洲猪瘟的发生状况,并构建其输入的风险模型.在数据挖掘和概率风险评估理论基础上,应用地理学第一定律、风险邻近和地理风险分析的方法开展研究.结果显示:①全球猪的养殖主要分布在中国、美国、巴西、加拿大及欧洲的德国、西班牙、法国等国家,养殖数量占全球猪存栏的76.67%左右.养殖较为密集的国家和地区主要为西班牙、德国、荷兰、比利时及中国、越南等.②基于地理学第一定律,在疫病风险管理和控制中我们提出"风险邻近"的概念,即在空间和时间上邻近的事件对与其相邻的空间单元和时间单元的风险影响要远大于较远的空间和时间单元的影响权重.③几内亚比绍、纳米比亚、俄罗斯、塞内加尔、贝宁、布基纳法索、佛得角、加纳、意大利、马达加斯加、莫桑比克、多哥等国家和地区在近年度报道发生多频次的非洲猪瘟疫情.基于"风险邻近",这些国家被认为是目前全球非洲猪瘟疫情风险最高的地区和国家,从该群体的国家进口和输入猪及其产品会带来较大输入风险.④从具有非洲猪瘟疫情发生风险的区域输入猪及其产品会给输入区域带来输入风险,其输入一批次产品的风险大小可以用模型表达为:PInport=f1.(1-Se)+(1-f1).f2.(1-Se)+(1-f1).(1-f2).f3.(1-Se)+(1-f1).(1-f2).(1-f3).f4.(1-Se)+(1-f1).(1-f2).(1-f3).(1-f4).f5.(1-Se),其中出口国和出口地区的产地检疫所能感知和发现的风险大小--f1是整个输入风险中权重最大的.这提示在动物及其产品移动和贸易中,有效的产地检疫有着极端重要性.目前全球范围内,非洲猪瘟的主要风险来自于几内亚比绍、纳米比亚、俄罗斯、塞内加尔、贝宁、布基纳法索、佛得角、加纳、意大利、马达加斯加、莫桑比克、多哥等国家,其次为喀麦隆、刚果、马拉维、卢旺达、乌干达、安哥拉、肯尼亚、尼日利亚、南非、坦桑尼亚、赞比亚等国家.从非洲猪瘟风险国家输入猪及其产品会带来一定的输入风险.有效强化产地检疫,开展风险区划,对非洲猪瘟等疫病的风险管理具有重要的意义.%Global pattern of current status of African swine fever (ASF) were explored, and its import risk model were constructed and derived. Based on the data mining techniques and probability risk theory, methods of Geography risk analysis, the first law of geography and risk approximate theory were applied in this manuscript. Results were as follows: In Global Scale, the swine production were mainly distributed in China, United States, Brazil, Canada, German, Spain, and French, the combination swine inventory of above country account for 76. 67% of global proportions,among which most density region were Spain, German, Netherlands and Belgium in EU,and China, Vietnam in Asian. Based on the Toble's first law of geography, "risk approximate" were introduced in this manuscript for the animal disease risk management and vet epidemiology, it's means that risk can be more approximated in the neighborhood than in distance. ASF have been recorded reported at least 89 frequency globally up to now, among which the countries like Guinea-Bissau, Namibia, Russia, Senegal, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Ghana, Italy, Madagascar, Mozambique and Togo have three years consecutive reported cases of ASF since 2007. Based on the Toble's first law of geography and risk approximated theory, the population above can be regarded as the most risk population country for African swine fever. Import swine and its products from countries at risk of ASF can pose risk to the imported countries, the imported risk (one batch of imported products) model can be depicted as follows: Pinport =f1·(1-Se) + (1-f1)f2·(l-Se)+(1-f1)·(1-f2).f3.(1-Se) +(1-f1).(1-f2).(1-f3).f4. (1-Se)+ (1-f1). (l-f2). (1-f3). (1-f4). F5. (1-Se) , among which f1 was the most weighted risk for import, it imply the importance of local quarantine or export quarantine before the movement of animal or animal products. Currently, the most risks of ASF were mainly coming from the countries in Guinea Bissau, Namibia, Russia, Senegal, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Ghana, Italy, Madagascar, Mozambique and Togo, next were Cameroon, Congo, Malawi, Rwanda, Uganda, Angola, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia. Potential risk can be imported if import swine or its products from countries at risks of ASF. Enforcing the efficiency of local quarantine or export quarantine,and initiate the geographical risk classification were most important to the risk management of ASF.
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