实现2015年家畜血吸虫病疫情控制目标的风险分析

摘要

作者于2012年采用问卷调查和现场调查相结合的方式，在湖南、湖北、江西、安徽、四川和云南6省28个县调研家畜血吸虫病疫情分析实现国务院提出的2015年控制目标的风险态势和主要风险因素。结果显示，如果未采取特别措施，家畜血吸虫病疫情要在全国范围内全面实现2015年控制目标的风险态势极为严峻。对20种主要风险因素重要性、风险因素可控度（即通过努力，到2015年能否根本改变）和13项措施的重要性得分进行统计分析后，提出了5点控制风险的对策建议。%　　In order to meet the goal of domestic animal schistosomiasis control by 2015 as proposed by the State Council of China, a survey of combining questionnaires and site visits was carried out in 28 counties in Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces for evaluating the current situations and major risk factors. The survey realized serious risks if no special measures would be implemented. Based on the statistical analysis of 20 risk factors, 13 control measures and degrees of controllability, five recommendations were proposed for risk control of domestic animal schistosomiasis.