Based 411 famers'survey in Fengzhen city,Liangcheng county,Xinghe county of Ulanqab city of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region and Chaoyang county of Chaoyang city of Liaoning province, this paper analyzed the factors affecting the farmers'willingness to plant coarse cereals in northern dry farming area under the background of corn storage system reform. Firstly it analyzed two common factors including householder personal characteristics and family endowment,and then it analyzed three important factors,such as natural and social resources character-istics,market environments and policy environments. The results showed:(1)Farmers'willingness to switch to oth-er crops would be weak while facing the decline of corn price because of ager householder, lower cultural level, less labors engaged in agricultural production and less cultivated land owned by farmers.(2)Farmer would face a higher sale risk of planting coarse cereals because of lack of enterprise driving and lower order planting, although farmers generally recognized that coarse cereals were very suited to local natural conditions. (3) The gains of coarse cereals would be of higher uncertainty because of an unclear expected price of it for most farmers, though farmers generally expected that corn market prices would be flat and low. (4)It would be not conducive to guide farmers to plant coarse cereals because farmers cannot understand the specific content of corn storage system reform and the vast majority of farmers cannot get support for coarse cereals production. Therefore,it should strengthen the policy publicity,support coarse cereals processing leading enterprises,and expand the scope of coarse cereals sub-sidies to improve farmers'planting willingness in northern dry farming area.%[目的] 利用内蒙古自治区乌兰察布丰镇市、凉城县、兴和县,辽宁省朝阳市朝阳县411个农户调查数据,分析玉米收储制度改革背景下北方旱作区农户杂粮种植影响因素.[方法] 首先对户主个人特征、家庭禀赋两个一般影响因素进行分析,然后重点对自然和社会资源特征、市场环境、政策环境3个影响因素进行分析.[结果] (1) 由于户主年龄偏大且文化程度较低、户均从事农业生产的劳动力数量和拥有的耕地面积都较少,农户面对玉米市场价格下跌改种其他农作物的能力较弱;(2) 尽管农户普遍认同杂粮适合当地自然条件,但是缺乏企业带动,订单种植杂粮的比例较低,农户种植杂粮存在较高的销售风险;(3) 虽然农户普遍预期玉米市场价格持平和走低,但是多数农户对杂粮市场价格没有明确预期,杂粮收益存在较高的不确定性;(4) 农户普遍不了解玉米收储制度改革的具体内容,且绝大部分农户没有获得杂粮生产支持,不利于引导农户种植杂粮.[结论] 应从加强政策宣传、扶持杂粮加工龙头企业、扩大杂粮补贴范围等方面着手,引导北方旱作区农户种植杂粮,减少玉米收储制度改革对其收入的冲击.
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