上海市卫生总费用系统动力学模型构建

摘要

Objective:The research intended to apply the method of system dynamics(SD)to build a model of total expenditure on health(TEH)in Shanghai and to simulate internal structures and functions as well as dynamic behaviors. Methods:The dynamics model was constructed by the Stella 8.1 computer simulation platform,based on the SD method. Results:Historical data from 2011 to 2013 were analyzed and relative errors between simulated and observed values on TEH,TEH per capita and ratio of TEH to GDP were 1.81%,2.24%and 0.24%,respectively. Simulating results confirmed the SD model was feasible and effective. Conclusion:Based on the SD model,various influence factors on TEH in Shanghai can be considered. Key factors and development trend can be identified by the simulation platform.%目的：应用系统动力学（SD）方法，构建上海市卫生总费用的系统动力学模型，对系统结构功能和动态行为进行仿真。方法：基于系统动力学理论，在Stella 8.1仿真平台上通过因果流图和系统流图构建卫生总费用仿真模型。结果：对2011年至2013年的历史数据进行验证，显示卫生总费用、人均卫生总费用和卫生总费用占国内生产总值（GDP）比重的推测值与历史报告值的相对平均误差分别为1.81%、2.24%和0.24%，仿真模型的精确度较高，模型具有可用性。结论：系统动力学建模和计算机仿真有利于系统思考与上海卫生总费用相关的各类影响因素，直观认识影响其发展趋势的关键因素，并进一步构建卫生总费用一体化分析和测试平台。