大型体育赛事突发事件应急能力的指标体系构建及评价研究

摘要

The evaluation of emergency capability for the mega sports events is significant for holding and managing the emergent events in competitions.By analyzing the emergency and its sudden risk in the mega sports competitions,basing on the three phases of pre-event,in-event and post-event,the paper puts forward a index system including 27 indexes to evaluate the emergency capability. Based on the sys-tem,it constructs a model of multistage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. With the method of experts scoring,and with the investigation data of the emergency capability against the emergent events in a mega sports competition which was held in Olympic sports center in Qinhuangdao city,it checks the above model. The results show that the index of in-event response control has the greatest impact on eval-uating the emergency capability of the whole sports events; the probability is maximal that both the pre-event monitoring and prevention and the post-event recovery processing are in the critical state; the probability is maximal that the emergency level of in-event response control is in a stronger state. The above conclusions illustrate the situation of emergency capability and may be as a scientific theoretical reference for improving the emergency capability.%大型体育赛事突发事件的应急能力评估对于赛场突发事件的控制和管理有着十分重要的意义。通过对大型体育赛事突发风险与应急分析，基于体育赛事的事前、事中和事后三大阶段，提出一套包含27个指标的应急能力评估指标体系，在此基础上构建了多级综合模糊评价模型，结合专家评分方法，以秦皇岛市奥体中心举办的大型体育赛事突发事件应急能力调查数据为例，对模型进行验算，得出了对整个体育赛事的应急能力评估影响最大的指标为事中比赛应对控制；事前赛况监测预防与事后赛场恢复处理的应急均处于临界状态的概率最大；事中比赛应对控制的应急水平处在较强状态的概率最大等重要的结论，说明了其应急能力的状况，并为其应急能力的提升提供了科学的理论依据。