中国低碳经济发展涉及众多因素,区分这些因素对制定低碳政策具有重要意义.本文通过构建阻碍中国低碳经济发展影响因素的指标体系,采用图论方法建立影响因素的关联矩阵,运用布尔运算得到各影响因素的层级关系,得出低碳经济发展的主要影响因素为经济粗放式发展、居民低碳意识淡薄和缺乏低碳专业人才.根据主要影响因素从基础情景、低碳情景和受挫情景定量模拟了中国2020年低碳经济发展水平,预测结果表明,在低碳情景下2020年能源消耗总量大致是41亿吨标准煤,C02排放量23亿吨碳当量,煤炭占一次能源需求量的60.5%,石油占18.4%,天然气占7.5%,核能占3.3%,水能占8.5%,其它新能源占2.1%.从终端能源使用部门来看,第二产业尤其是高耗能行业比重大幅下降,现代服务业比重提高,对能源需求下降起到至关重要的作用.但是随着我国经济发展和居民生活水平不断提高,居民能耗呈现不断上升的特点,因此提高居民低碳意识和倡导低碳消费有利于实现我国低碳目标.此情景模拟取得了较好的预测效果,对中国的低碳经济发展政策具有一定的借鉴意义.%Various factors influence the development of low carbon economy in China , so it is meaningful to discriminate them. Through an indicator system composed of factors impeding the development of low-carbon economy in China, this paper establishes structural self-interaction matrix by graph theory, obtains the hierarchy relationship among each influencing factor based on Boolean operation, and determines the main factors affecting low-carbon economic development in China: rough-type economic development, weak awareness of low - carbon and lack of trained manpower. Based on the critical barrier factors, the paper forecasts the development levels of low-carbon economy in China by 2020 in basic scenario, low-carbon scenario and frustrated scenario respectively. The results indicate that the energy demand and carbon emissions in future are very likely to fluctuate in a large range. Assuming the successful implementation of low-carbon economy, the aggregate energy consumption in 2020 will be approximately 4. 1 billion tons of standard coal, and CO2 emission is 2. 3 billion tons of carbon equivalents. In addition, coal accounts for 60. 5% of primary energy demand while petroleum, natural gas, nuclear power and hydropower account for 18. 4% , 7. 5% , 3. 3% , and 8. 5% respectively. Other new energies take the balance share of 2. 1%. In contrast, how to reduce the proportion of secondary industry, especially high energy-consuming industries, mainly depends on the improvement of energy-saving technology. With the improvement of the living standards, the amount of energy consumption in the daily life is rising continuously. Therefore, enhancing residents' awareness of low-carbon plays a vital role in decreasing energy demand and carbon emissions in their daily life. Therefore, the scenario simulation has obtained reasonable results according to the hierarchical relationship of the barriers, and may provide evidence and recommendations for low-carbon economy development in China.
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