能源强度反映了能源的利用效率,并且可以体现出一个国家及地区的经济发展水平、产业结构和技术进步的综合作用.本文在1995-2009年各省份数据的基础上,利用面板VAR模型脉冲响应函数和面板协整模型分析中国区域能源强度与就业之间的动态作用及其长期均衡关系.结果显示,能源强度与就业之间存在着长期均衡关系；能源强度对就业总量和就业变动率有着负向的冲击,能源强度的降低可以有效拉动中国就业的提高.各个省份之间的能源强度对于中国就业的影响存在显着的差异；影响作用由西向东呈现出梯度递增的趋势.因此,建议通过扩大经济增长的规模降低能源强度,提高就业水平；东部地区应侧重于提高能源利用效率及发展第三产业来增加就业,而中西部地区可以适度降低能源的消费总量,并不会对就业产生较大的冲击；另外,在政策制定和实施过程中,需要注意政策的时滞效应,通过优化工业布局,加强区域间的合作,实现能源强度变动与就业增加的良性互动.%Energy intensity reflects the efficiency of energy consumption, and also can be regarded as a measure of interaction among economic development .industrial structures and technological progress in a country. This paper employs the panel VAR model with impulse response function and panel co-integration model to analyze the dynamic effects of energy intensity on employment by using provincial data from 1 995 to 2009 in China. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between energy intensity and employment, and energy intensity has negative impart on total employment and employment rate, which means a drop of energy intensity can effectively increase employment. Meanwhile, the impact of energy intensity on employment is significantly different among regions, which tends gradient increment from wcat to east. Therefore, we suggest decreasing energy intensity through enlarging the scale of economic growth as to promote employment. Different strategies should be adopted, as it should focus on raising efficiency of energy consumption as well as developing the third industry to increase employment in east areas, while the middle and west provinces could lower their total energy consumption, not having too much impact on their employment. Besides, much attention should be paid on the lag effect of policies. Some consequence could be concluded to bring out positive interaction between energy intensity changes and employment increase through optimizing industrial layout and strengthening regional cooperation.
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