Since the reform and opening up policy was adopted,China has experienced a booming economic growth,which provides a important material basis for the development.However,the noneffective development of economy has led to a serious environmental concern.As the core of modern economic development,finance is a necessary support for low-carbon economy in China.Based on investigating the mechanism of financial inclusive development and economic growth on carbon emissions,this paper puts forward four hypotheses:① there may exist two possible effects (positive or negative) of financial inclusive development on carbon emissions,the final effect depends on the relative size of the two effects;② the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis is not robust,which is associated the selection of method of measurement and research areas;③ there may exist threshold effect on the impact of financial inclusive development on carbon emissions at different stages of economic development;④ spatial heterogeneity has a significant effect on the relationship between financial development and carbon emissions.Based on the calculation of financial inclusion development index and carbon emissions,this paper constructed dynamic panel model and panel threshold model and applied estimation methods such as system GMM,fixed effect and random effect using provincial panel data.We tested the proposed hypothesis within the east,central and west China respectively.The following conclusions are obtained:① China' s financial development shows regional characteristics and financial development in the east China is clearly superior to that of the west and central;② China' s current financial development has a contribution to reducing emission and promotes the development of low-carbon economy;③ the emission reduction effect of financial development is gradually weakened when financial development is the threshold variable;④ the emission reduction effect of financial development is gradually increased when economic growth is a threshold variable;⑤ Spatial heterogeneity can impact the relationship between financial development and carbon emissions:financial inclusive development contributes to reducing emission in central and west China,but leads to increased emission in the east China.At last,we give policy suggestions on strengthening the role of finance in the low-carbon economy development.%改革开放以来,中国经济高速增长,为中国崛起提供了重要的物质基础与保障.然而,粗放型经济发展模式也导致严重的资源环境问题.金融是现代经济发展核心,实现中国绿色低碳经济发展离不开金融支持.本文首先在分析金融发展、经济增长对碳排放的作用机制基础上,提出以下研究假说:①金融发展对碳排放存在正、负两种效应,其综合效应的大小取决于两种效应的相对大小.②环境库兹涅兹曲线假说并不是稳健的,其成立与计量方法、研究区域等选取有关.③金融发展对碳排放的影响在不同经济发展阶段与金融发展水平下存在门槛效应.④空间异质性对金融发展与碳排放之间关系存在显著影响.随后构建动态面板模型与面板门槛模型,应用系统GMM、固定效应、随机效应等多种估计方法,在核算中国各省份金融包容性发展指数与碳排放基础上,结合省级面板数据,并分东、中、西区域,对以上假说进行实证检验与分析.得出以下结论:①中国金融包容性发展呈现区域性差异,东部金融发展明显优于中西部地区.②当前中国金融发展有利于减少碳排放,促进低碳经济发展.③当以金融发展为门槛变量时,金融发展的碳减排效应是逐渐弱化的.④当以经济增长作为门槛变量时,金融发展的碳减排效应是逐渐增强的.⑤空间异质性影响金融发展与碳排放之间关系——中西部区域内金融发展有利于减少碳排放;东部区域内金融发展却导致碳排放增加.最后,本文从强化金融在绿色低碳经济发展中的作用、创新开放格局等方面提出政策建议.
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