人民币汇率变动对中国煤炭进口影响的实证研究

摘要

以2010年1月至2015年3月间的月度数据作为研究对象，在ADF单位根检验、自相关检验、协整检验的基础上，用广义差分法建立变量间长期稳定均衡关系，并建立表示变量间短期均衡关系的误差修正模型，实证分析人民币名义汇率的变动是否会对中国煤炭进口额产生影响以及产生怎样的影响。实证分析结果表明：人民币升值会导致中国煤炭进口额增加，中国煤炭价格指数上升长期会使中国进口更多的煤炭，代表中国经济发展水平的中国制造业采购经理指数也会影响中国煤炭进口，但影响不显著。%This paper uses monthly data from January 2010 to March 2015 as the research object ,on the basis of the ADF unit root test ,the autocorrelation test and the cointegration test ,uses the generalized difference method to establish the long‐term stable equilibrium relationship of the variables1 .The error correction model of the short‐term equilibrium relationship between the variables is established .Analyses whether the change of nominal exchange rate of RMB will affect China’s coal importsand how toinfluence . Example analysis shows that the appreciation of the RMB will lead to increased imports of China’s coal .The rise ofChina’ s coal price index will enable China to import more coal .On behalf of China’ s economic development level of China’ s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index will also affect China’ s coal imports ,but the impact is not significant .