华北地区主要呼吸道传染病与气象条件的关系

摘要

Objective: To detect the hotspot areas of the five main respiratory infectious diseases, and to evaluate the rela -tionship between aspiratory infectious diseases and weather conditions for providing scientific basis on the prevention and control of respiratory diseases in North China. Methods: The data of incidence of the main respiratory infectious diseases and metrological factors in North China from 1994 to 2000 were collected and were managed ,the meteorological data was from National Weather Service meteorological data sharing network. Spatial clustering statistics by SatScan 8.0 was used to draw the higher incidence areas of diseases, and poisson model of panel data analysis was performed to assess the effects on respiratory diseases resulted from meteorological factors include air temperature, humidity and sunshine. Results: The spatial cluster analysis showed that the distributions of respiratory infectious diseases present a significant spatial heterogeneity. The meteorological factors analysis showed that the incidence of tuberculosis was negatively correlated with the average maximum temperature (IRR =0.507, P<0.001), and the incidence of measles and epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis was negatively correlated with the average temperature (IRR=0.652, 0.610, P<0.001). But it was positively correlated between the incidence of scarlet fever and the mean temperature (IRR=4.27l, P<0.001). The incidence of measles was positively correlated with mean minimum humidity (IRR = l.20O6, P<0.001), and the incidence of scarlet fever and pertussis was positively correlated with the mean temperature (IRR=2.130, 0.999, P<0.001). Conclusion: The spatial distribution of respiratory infectious diseases in North China is non-random. Temperature and humidity are the main meteorological factors affect -ing on the incidence of respiratory diseases.%目的:了解华北地区5种主要呼吸道传染病高发聚集区,评价气象条件对不同呼吸道传染病的影响,为预防和控制呼吸道传染病提供科学依据.方法:选择华北地区为研究对象,从中国疾病控制预防中心获得华北地区1994～2000年主要呼吸道传染病发病资料,从国家气象局气象数据共享网获得该地区同期气象资料;应用SatScan 8.0软件对华北地区高发病区进行空间聚类分析;然后应用STATA 10.0统计软件构建基于面板数据的泊松回归模型,进行气象因素与传染病发病率的相关性分析,评价该地区气象因素(气温、湿度、日照)对呼吸道传染病传播的影响.结果:空间聚类分析结果显示,不同呼吸道传染病的高发聚集区空间分布存在异质性;面板数据的相关分析结果显示,肺结核发病率与平均最高气温呈负相关(IRR=0.507,P<0.001),麻疹、流行性脑脊髓膜炎发病率与平均气温呈负相关(IRR分别为0.652和0.610,P<0.001),猩红热发病率与平均气温呈正相关(IRR=4.271,P<0.001);麻疹发病率与最小相对湿度,猩红热、百日咳发病率与平均相对湿度呈正相关(IRR分别为1.206、2.130和0.999,P<0.001).结论:华北地区呼吸道传染病的空间分布呈非随机分布;温度、湿度是影响华北地区呼吸道传染病传播流行的主要气象因素.