一种产品退化试验的仿真与优化方法

摘要

提出了一种基于性能退化模拟数据的退化试验参数优化方法,该方法适用于已知失效机理并可建立退化数据预测模型的情况.首先采用Bootstrap法建立了可靠寿命置信区间预测模型;然后以可靠寿命置信区间最小为目标,以试验预算费用为约束建立了试验参数的优化模型;接着以某型号武器身管为例,分析了生成模拟退化数据的一般方法,并对身管的退化试验参数进行了优化设计;最后探讨了仿真与优化效果的验证分析方法,通过对相应算例的分析证明了该方法的有效性.%Based on the simulated degradation data,a degradation test optimization method was proposed,which was applicable in the case of known failure mechanism and predicable degradation data.Firstly,the prediction model for confidence interval of the reliable life was built based on the Bootstrap method,and the optimization model for the degradation tests was established,which took the minimum confidence interval of reliable life as the optimization objective,and the experimental costs as the constraints.Then,as an example,the general method of generating simulated degradation data for a certain kind of gun barrel was presented,and the degradation test parameters were designed and optimized.Finally,the verification method of the simulation and optimization results was discussed,and the related examples were analyzed to prove the effectiveness of the method.