深圳市高度城市化阶段违法用地影响因素分析与风险评估

摘要

Based on cognition of illegal land use, the purpose of this study is to analyze the main impact factors of illegal land use in the stage of post urbanization based on a positioning and quantitative framework, and then carry out illegal land use risk assessment in order to provide decision and technical support for the illegal land use early-warning system. Methods of spatial analysis and statistics approach of regression and simulation were employed. The results indicate that the significant impact factors of illegal land use ranked from great to small are as follows:slop, occupant of land, industrial land distribution, land type, ecological control area, main road distribution, and subway distribution. There was a negative correlation between slop and illegal land use, that is for each 10 degree increase in slop, the relative risk of illegal land use reduce to 54%from the original. The relative risk of illegal land use in the area occupied by villagers is 2.3 times than elsewhere. The closer the distance to the industrial land, the higher the risk of illegal land use is. In all land types, other land has the highest risk to be used illegally, which is 3 times higher than arable land. The high-risk areas of illegal land use mainly concentrated in Guangming New District, central of Bao’an District, east of Longgang District and north of Pingshan New District. This study confirms that the illegal land use is significantly restricted by land resource in the stage of post urbanization. In the environment of relatively complete infrastructure and high economic value of land, the natural and social attributes of land itself dominate the illegal land use. The high-risk area of illegal land use is roughly as same as the urban expending area. Spatial quantitative analysis approach based on GIS and statistics is an effective mean for the factors studies of illegal land use.%研究目的：基于对违法用地相关概念的认知，在定位、定量的框架下分析高度城市化状态下违法用地的主要影响因素，并在此基础上开展违法用地风险评估，为违法用地早发现、早制止，开展精细化土地监察提供决策依据和技术支持。研究方法：GIS空间分析，统计学回归与模拟方法。研究结果：对违法用地具有显著影响作用的因子中，相关程度从高到低依次为坡度、土地实际占有主体、工业用地分布、土地类型、生态控制区、现状主要道路分布、现状轨道交通分布；坡度因子与违法用地发生呈现负相关，坡度每增加10°，违法用地相对风险降低为原来的54%；原农村集体实际占有土地上发生违法用地行为的相对风险是其他地方的2.3倍；距离工业用地较近的地方具有较高的违法用地发生风险；各土地类型中，其他土地上发生违法用地的风险最高，相对风险为耕地的3倍；违法用地高风险区域主要集中在光明新区全部、宝安区中部、龙岗区东部及坪山新区北部等原特区外区域。研究结论：在高度城市化阶段，违法用地的发生受土地资源制约十分显著，在基础设施相对完备、土地经济价值凸显的环境下，土地本身的自然和社会属性开始主导违法用地行为；违法用地高风险区域与城市扩展主要方向表现为一致；基于GIS和统计学的空间定量分析技术是开展违法用地影响因素研究的有效手段。